6 MARCH 2024 · CONSERVATIVEJeremy Hunt: a tax-cutting headline
Spring Budget cut the main employee National Insurance rate from 10% to 8%, funded NHS productivity investment and continued the fuel-duty freeze. It also proposed revenue-raising measures, including replacing the non-dom regime.
The playable tension: a visible tax cut has a cost; hoped-for productivity gains take time and are not cash already in the bank.
Read Spring Budget 2024 ↗30 OCTOBER 2024 · LABOURRachel Reeves: services and investment
Autumn Budget increased employer National Insurance from 13.8% to 15% from April 2025 and lowered its payment threshold. It increased resource and capital spending and introduced rules targeting the current balance and net financial debt.
The playable tension: extra service funding must come from somewhere; raising employment taxes can put pressure on employers and workers.
Read Autumn Budget 2024 ↗ Model assumptions, limits and sources
Historical comparisons are selected 2024 examples, not a comprehensive audit or a statement of current rates. Fiscal rules and forecasts change. For newer official forecasts, consult the OBR forecast archive. Research checked 15 September 2026.
Distribution, growth responses and behavioural tax effects are not fully modelled. Donor, union and MP reactions are invented satire. No result predicts a real election or market response. Fiscal headroom is a forecast margin, not a pot of spendable cash.